The NBA playoffs are upon us, a six-month slog about to finish with a two-month sprint to the title.
The slog has been anything but predictable, and the playoffs should be compelling. Here are a few of the top figures and storylines as eight weeks of no sleep are 24 hours away.
James Harden
A trip to the NBA Finals would do more for James Harden’s standing in history and today’s hierarchy any other player. But that would mean carrying the Rockets past the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors in a likely second-round matchup, not the conference finals, the latest scene of Harden’s tank running on E.
And that would mean Harden reversing course on a very ugly pattern, closing out series in a forgettable manner because going 6-for-36 —as he did in Games 6 and 7 of the West finals combined — won’t cut it at any stage this time around.
Harden is a co-favorite to win Most Valuable Player, which would turn into a dubious honor of sorts if he were to capture the award over Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, only to have the Rockets come up short yet again. Name a two-time MVP who was unable to take his team to the NBA Finals.
That would be Steve Nash, who was coached by the man who patrols the sidelines in Houston, Mike D’Antoni.
Make no mistake, Harden has been magnificent this season. Since the Rockets started 11-14, Harden has played out of his mind, at levels only documented by grainy film and basketball-reference.com. Averaging 38.5 points, 7.2 assists and 7.1 rebounds is impressive no matter the era, style or motivations. But great production comes with great responsibility, to play off the old “Spider-Man” troupe.
His season doesn’t alleviate pressure; it enhances it. And if the Warriors are as vulnerable as Harden and the Rockets like to believe they are, falling to Golden State again would be a crushing failure. And should Harden follow suit from past closing performances, the tone won’t be that Harden saved the Rockets from destruction but that he lacks the true moxie of a champion, that his numbers are empty and he’s not worthy of to be included in a conversation of the greats until he surpasses this roadblock.
Will they stay or will they go?
The Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors weren’t on Jimmy Butler’s and Kawhi Leonard’s preferred trade lists when the All-Stars issued demands, but they wound up in their respective places because Elton Brand and Masai Ujiri made bold moves for players bound for free agency in July.
Perhaps Brand did it because Joel Embiid’s knees are a ticking time bomb and the 76ers needed to maximize a potential window, and we know Ujiri was tired of repeated playoff disappointments, sending franchise mainstay DeMar DeRozan packing for the possibility of keeping Leonard in tow.
The playoff runs will either validate or disprove the beliefs of the two executives, who saw an opening at the top of the East and daringly believed a combination of wins, familiarity and team culture could be enough to make their stars commit long term.
Butler’s future is anybody’s guess, illustrated by Brand making another big play at the deadline in acquiring Tobias Harris from the Los Angeles Clippers. And Leonard … well, anybody who knows Leonard’s thoughts at this stage, please stand up. He’s done what a narrative-starved media has long claimed stars should do when they want the noise quieted below a whisper: Leonard’s given his free-agency future no oxygen and his stay in Toronto has largely been drama-free as the Raptors have accommodated his needs to get himself fully healthy after a tumultuous season with the Spurs.
If the first round is chalk, the second round could be Raptors vs. 76ers, with much more than a trip to the conference finals on the line. The Oklahoma City Thunder took a chance on Paul George when his bags seemed destined for Los Angeles, and not even a first-round knockout could stop him from staying.
The NBA is a copycat league, and should two successful franchises that aren’t free-agent destinations find a way to circumvent the process by going against conventional wisdom, leveraging assets for question marks and turning them into long-term commitments, it’ll spur other scared teams to do the same when disgruntled players hit the market.
If it backfires, not only will other franchises stay with the status quo, but Brand and Ujiri will look real funny in the light.
Brad Stevens
This time last year, the Celtics coach was the boy wonder, plotting and scheming to get his team past the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers before falling in a Game 7 to LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers in the East finals. With no Gordon Hayward and no Kyrie Irving, Brad Stevens made up for a talent deficit in every series — it’s not a stretch to say the opposing team had the two best players in each series, save for James’ Cavs perhaps. If we left things at late May, pressed the fast-forward button and saw these Celtics as a four seed, what would we think? Injuries to Hayward and Irving again? Or worse, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown not being available? Because surely, Stevens would have no problem operating with a full deck if he nearly ran the table last spring with no face cards.
Instead, the Celtics have been racked with turmoil, issues real and imagined, and it doesn’t seem like Stevens has had his hand on the pulse as well as we’ve expected. Their defense has been spotty and the offense, while potentially explosive, has sputtered. Hayward’s recovery has been a slow one, as to be expected, but the Celtics haven’t played as well as a unit all season. And if Stevens gets to wear the crown for guiding an overachieving bunch, he also has to wear some of the thorns of this inconsistent ride to the playoffs.
Irving’s impending free agency and some of the drama surrounding him hasn’t helped, and Stevens can certainly look upstairs if his players have been distracted since January, feeling they’ll be sent to New Orleans over the summer in a package for Anthony Davis.
But if the postseason is for hitting the reset button, the Celtics can redefine themselves as the favored bunch in one swoop — despite having the toughest road to a title of anyone. Indiana gives no quarter. The Bucks are a nightmare, possessing home-court advantage and the likely MVP. Then, its likely Toronto or Philadelphia will be waiting with open arms before all roads end in the Bay Area.
If Stevens is able to help engineer a refocusing of a scattered group, it’ll cement his standing as a top coach. If he doesn’t, we have to wonder if he’s fit to coach a certain type of team as opposed to a talented one with egos and expectations.
Golden present, cloudy future?
It’s been a glorious run for the Warriors, as they’ve become recent fixtures in June. They’ve attacked every seeming problem with a sledgehammer approach, resulting in four straight Finals and a fifth is likely. Vanquished by LeBron James in a surprising 3-1 comeback? Add Kevin Durant. Lacking a true big man and a rehabilitating one is on the market? Welcome, DeMarcus Cousins.
Even staying ahead of the curve has its drawbacks as they had to fight off the Denver Nuggets for the top seed in the West. They’ve had more self-induced drama this go-round than any other, with Durant’s future a question every day and everything that isn’t nailed down seems to be in question.
By Year Three of title runs, other teams have caught up. The secret sauce has been passed around and the invincibility factor has usually worn off. Even with Michael Jordan’s Bulls, the third year and beyond produced greater challenges and confident challengers who took the GOAT to the brink (1993 Knicks up 2-0 in the conference finals; 1998 Pacers up big in a Game 7 in the conference finals). And lets not forget the Shaq-Kobe Lakers needing every bit of advantage to escape the Sacramento Kings in 2002.
It happens, and there’s no shame in realizing that this year could be an even tougher road than last … or will it truly be that? The Warriors seem impervious to everything, including history. Are they afraid of a second-round matchup with the Rockets? Doubtful, when you’ve taken a seventh game on their home floor. Is there concern about Oklahoma City or Denver or Portland? Probably not.
But dynasties often crumble from the inside, and with an uncertain tomorrow on the horizon, can the Warriors keep it together well enough — and long enough — to claim a third straight title? Their defense is starting to come around and when backed up, they’ve fought with a ferocity a champion should have in reserve.
But sometimes, that tank goes empty before you know it, although it says here they have more than enough to keep things from being little more than entertaining this spring — even if the future is murky.
LeBron James
These next two months will be odd without the most irresistible force in the NBA to watch, talk about and speculate on. LeBron James’ move to Los Angeles didn’t produce the results, but we can’t say it didn’t produce entertaining drama.
And if there’s one thing we’ve come to know about James, he loves being part of the conversation and it’ll be hard for him to stay off the grid for an extended period of time.
Could we see a “LeBron Playoff Tour” with James and Rich Paul visiting Klutch Sports clients courtside at various arenas, big brother hovering over every playoff series in a “Where’s Waldo?” manner?
It’s hard to believe he’ll just vanish to film “Space Jam 2” this summer without so much as a word, and Instagram posts just won’t cut it. After all, he is a basketball fan and a savant in ways mere mortals can’t relate.
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