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Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Why the Lakers' longshot 2019 NBA playoff odds are next to impossible


The Lakers are still mathematically alive in the race for the 2019 NBA playoffs, but not even IMF agent Ethan Hunt would accept this mission. 

After losing to the Clippers on March 5, the Lakers are 5.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with only 18 games left on their regular season schedule. Following the disappointing defeat, LeBron James was asked point blank what he expects the team to do when — not if — it is eliminated from postseason contention.

Notice that James didn't scoff at the question or shut it down by informing media members the Lakers will make the playoffs against all odds. He seems to be resigned to the fact that Los Angeles is already done, and well, he's right.

The Lakers are buried in the Western Conference standings.
If we weren't talking about the Lakers and LeBron, this team would have been written off before falling to the Clippers. That loss just reinforces what was already known.

Los Angeles is now as close to the Grizzlies at No. 14 as the Spurs in the No. 8 slot. The Lakers are down to a two percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest projections, the same odds as the Pelicans, a team that has placed its top-five player on a minutes restriction.

Playoff seed Team Games back

1. Warriors

2. Nuggets 2

3. Thunder 5

4. Trail Blazers 5

5. Rockets 6

6. Jazz 8

7. Clippers 8.5

8. Spurs 9

* Kings 12

* Lakers 14.5

* Timberwolves 15

* Pelicans 15.5

* Mavericks 17

* Grizzlies 20

* Suns 31

The Clippers and Spurs already own tiebreakers against the Lakers.
The battle for LA was important not only because the Lakers needed to rack up as many wins as possible, but also because of the tiebreaker implications.

NBA tiebreakers are first determined by head-to-head records, then by division records. The Lakers could even the season series at 2-2 with one more head-to-head game remaining on April 5, but the Clippers (11-3) are far superior to the Lakers (7-6) within the Pacific Division.

As for the eighth seed, the Spurs already took three of the four matchups against the Lakers, so that head-to-head tiebreaker is gone.

The Lakers' remaining schedule is brutal.
It's a rough road ahead. The Lakers face the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and only five of their final 18 games come against teams under .500.

Date Team Record

March 6 vs. Nuggets 42-21

March 9 vs. Celtics 38-26

March 12 at Bulls 18-46

March 14 at Raptors 46-18

March 15 at Pistons 31-31

March 17 at Knicks 13-51

March 19 at Bucks 48-16

March 22 vs. Nets 33-33

March 24 vs. Kings 32-31

March 26 vs. Wizards 26-37

March 27 at Jazz 36-27

March 29 vs. Hornets 29-34

March 31 at Pelicans 30-36

April 2 at Thunder 39-24

April 4 vs. Warriors 44-19

April 5 at Clippers 37-29

April 7 vs. Jazz 36-27

April 9 vs. Trail Blazers 39-24

Meanwhile, the Clippers (17th-toughest remaining schedule) and Spurs (24th) travel relatively easy roads down the stretch. The latest projections show the last two teams in the West playoff field will finish around 44-45 wins, meaning the Lakers would need to go 14-4 for the mere possibility of reaching the first round. (And that's without mentioning the Kings or the additional help the Lakers need.)


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